As we look back at the 2010 election cycle to try and divine what the outcomes mean, we must pick our way through a maze of information that ultimately provides little concrete insight into what the next two years will offer.  In an effort to distinguish this re-cap from countless others and to help inform public affairs professionals looking for a way to describe the climate to their clients, I have channeled three noted Englishmen whose influence has been felt for more than 450 years to offer insight.

The First Englishman

In Act 5, Scene 5 of Macbeth, Shakespeare’s title character speaks his famous soliloquy in which he rages against a tale “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”  Without a doubt the fury directed at incumbent Democrats (and a few Republicans) across the country seemed greater and more virulent than in any recent election.  The rage began building in the summer of 2009 when Americans turned out in record numbers at town hall meetings to protest health care reform, government bailouts, and seemingly unrestrained spending.

In the ensuing year we saw the rise of the Tea Party, which sought to remake the Republican Party and to punish a demoralized Democratic party struggling to jumpstart the economic recovery.  The Tea Party claimed early victories by knocking off Sen. Bennett in Utah during the primaries and choosing Marco Rubio over incumbent Governor Charlie Crist in Florida.  From there the Tea Party continued its march with wins by Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, and Rand Paul in Kentucky and Dan Coats in Indiana.  If a Sharon Angle and Joe Miller hadn’t faltered in Nevada and Alaska respectively, the gains would have been even more dramatic.

As the dust settles we see a Republican controlled House of Representatives with a significantly more liberal Democratic Caucus due to the dramatic losses among the Blue Dog Coalition.  The very narrowly Democratic controlled Senate will act as a check on the House Republicans, and on occasion conservative Democrats join Republicans to tilt legislation to the Right, but without out enough votes to override a Presidential veto there will be no sweeping repeal of any legislation passed in the last two years.  As a result, there will be very little federal legislation addressing our nation’s multitude of challenges.  Instead, I expect to see greater regulatory activism among the Obama Administration’s regulatory agencies in an effort to advance its agenda.

Finally, while the election results were an astounding repudiation of Democratic control at the state and federal level, polls indicated they were not an affirmation of the Republican Party or its ability to solve our country’s problems.  In the end after all the sound and fury we are left with a more partisan House, a more evenly divided Senate with fewer moderates, and an electorate that clearly distrusts both parties.  Has anything really changed from four, six, or even 16 years ago?

The Second Englishman

In 1971, the album Who’s Next hit the shelves of record stores with the song, “Won’t Get Fooled Again” written by Pete Townshend appearing as the final track.  In it Townshend writes about the disillusionment of revolution when he concludes, “Meet the new boss, Same as the old boss,” which sums up the Congressional leadership that will take office when the 112^th Congress convenes in January 2011.

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